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How close is L.A. County to a new COVID mask mandate?



In what has now change into a sample in the course of the pandemic, coronavirus instances are rising as we enter the vacation season in L.A. County.

It’s nonetheless removed from clear how massive a possible winter surge may very well be. Some officers are optimistic the wave is not going to be as dangerous as previous seasons.

However officers warn that continued spikes in COVID-19 may convey a return to an indoor masks mandate.

Right here’s what we all know:

What are the COVID numbers in L.A.?

CASES: L.A. County’s coronavirus case charge has been rising since late October and is now triple what it was within the autumn low. For the week that ended Thursday, L.A. County was recording 2,710 instances a day — or 188 instances per week for each 100,000 residents. A case charge of 100 or extra is taken into account excessive. The autumn low was a weekly charge of 60, set on Oct. 21.

HOSPITALIZATIONS: In line with the U.S. Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention, there have been 1,196 new admissions of coronavirus-positive sufferers for the week that ended Tuesday — triple the speed from the start of November. That’s 11.9 new weekly hospitalizations for each 100,000 residents. A charge exceeding 10 is sufficient to ship L.A. County to the medium COVID-19 neighborhood degree.

DEATHS: The COVID-19 dying charge stays steady in L.A. County, at round 60 per week. But when instances proceed to rise, so too will deaths, finally.

What wouldn’t it take to pressure a brand new indoor masks mandate?

Ought to hospital measures worsen, L.A. County may very well be on monitor for the return of a compulsory masks mandate in indoor public settings.

To get there, the case charge would wish to prime 200 per week for each 100,000 residents. L.A. County may hit that threshold subsequent week.

However earlier than a masks mandate have been triggered, the proportion of hospital beds utilized by coronavirus-positive sufferers additionally would wish to exceed 10%, a degree reached solely in the course of the two prior COVID-19 winter surges, the deadliest of the pandemic. The present determine is 5.6%, which is up from round 2% initially of November.

What would the timing of a masks mandate appear like?

It could take a number of extra weeks of accelerating numbers to achieve the set off level primarily based on present developments. It stays unsure whether or not that may occur.

Los Angeles County Public Well being Director Barbara Ferrer stated she doesn’t anticipate L.A. County to hit the elevated hospitalization charge anytime quickly. “I don’t assume it’ll be there subsequent week. I’d be very shocked,” Ferrer stated. “It could imply that hospitalizations are actually going up very, in a short time, far more shortly than we often see.”

If L.A. County does attain all of the benchmarks to set off a brand new masks order, officers may resolve to implement the rule a few weeks later, Ferrer stated.

What occurred final summer time, when COVID instances rose?

Over the summer time, L.A. County reached the brink to provoke a brand new masks order in response to rising instances and hospitalizations, triggering a countdown for the order to enter impact two weeks later, in late July. However that order by no means went into place, as case and hospitalization charges dipped simply in time.

“We’ll have to take a look at the speed of enhance and what we’re seeing when it comes to that to resolve what that timeframe can be,” Ferrer stated. “After which, as we’ve performed up to now, as quickly as we see the numbers that present us that transmission has lowered and that issues at our hospitals are decrease … we’d go forward and carry” the masks order.

What do consultants say concerning the winter COVID-19 forecast?

The rising instances have introduced concern and requires individuals to take precautions.

However there’s additionally some optimism.

A number of the benefits this yr in comparison with previous seasons is an up to date COVID-19 booster shot that’s fairly nicely matched to the circulating strains of the coronavirus, ample provides of at-home fast assessments and normal consciousness of steps that may be taken to keep away from sickness, together with masking up in indoor public settings, staying residence when sick and bettering air stream by taking occasions open air, opening home windows and turning up air filtration models.

There’s even some promising information concerning the unrelenting emergence of recent coronavirus subvariants, none of which have dramatically raised alarm bells the way in which the unique Omicron pressure did when it stormed onto the world stage final Thanksgiving.

However COVID-19 has proved arduous to foretell.

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